Will Indianapolis Colts win the 2026 AFC South?

Prediction markets currently give a 15% probability that Will Indianapolis Colts win the 2026 AFC South?. This contract trades at 15¢ on Polymarket, closing January 4, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility despite 263 days to expiration, with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 46¢ bid-ask spread indicating very thin order books.

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15¢
Bid/Ask 12/18¢·Spread 6¢·Vol $0·OI $1,126.72·Closes Jan 4, 2027·257d remaining
0x54af4c40b9f56eb937115a08e81e6d1edfa51cd4b4780108cccdb94a9ec4c3b5
7-day price1417 snapshots · 3 regime
59¢16¢ current
Apr 810¢Apr 22

Analysis

5d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility despite 263 days to expiration, with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 46¢ bid-ask spread indicating very thin order books. The Yes position's 633% implied yield is extraordinarily high and likely reflects the wide spread rather than genuine expected returns, while the 2817% realized volatility and 12.16 vol ratio suggest this contract has experienced wild price swings—notably jumping from 19¢ to 34¢ over the past week. With only $31k open interest and a Cliff Risk Index of 5, this market lacks the depth needed for reliable price discovery and should be approached cautiously by traders seeking meaningful exposure to Colts AFC South odds.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the team that is declared as the AFC South division champion for the 2026 NFL regular season. If multiple teams tie atop the division, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the NFL. If the 2026 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed after January 17, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this division within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 647.1%
IY (No) 31.2%
Adj IY 324%
CRI 5
Overround 0.0%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)647.1%
IY (No)31.2%
Adj IY324%
CRI5
Overround0.0%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
6¢
Computed
4/22/2026, 12:50:58 AM
Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 12:38:18 AM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x54af4c40b9f56eb937115a08e81e6d1edfa51cd4b4780108cccdb94a9ec4c3b5 yes 100

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