Will Richard Tabor be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey?
Prediction markets currently give a 45% probability that Will Richard Tabor be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey?. This contract trades at 45¢ on Polymarket, closing June 2, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $19k open interest, suggesting the 45¢ price may not reflect true consensus given the 1¢ spread and astronomical 955% implied yield on the Yes side.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $19k open interest, suggesting the 45¢ price may not reflect true consensus given the 1¢ spread and astronomical 955% implied yield on the Yes side. The sharp 6-point price decline over seven days combined with a 195% realized volatility and neutral regime indicates significant uncertainty, though the approaching June 2026 expiry (47 days) and high info arrival rate of 0.7/hour suggest material developments are expected soon that could clarify Tabor's nomination prospects.
Also on kalshi at 44¢(Δ +1¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from New Jersey. If no 2026 New Jersey Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the New Jersey Republican party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x55728e5c560c8cdccb726ccb501494097ef1b48b86d951cc4f01e4fd827eaf57 yes 100