Will the Democratic Party win the SC-03 House seat?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 7¢ price implying only 7% Democratic win probability in South Carolina's 3rd district, yet generating an extraordinary 2,416.7% implied yield on the Yes side—a massive risk-reward asymmetry suggesting either deep undervaluation or structural illiquidity issues. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $28k open interest and a tight 1¢ spread indicates this is a dead market with no price discovery mechanism, making the quoted yield largely theoretical rather than actionable. With 201 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, the extreme yield likely reflects the market's illiquidity trap rather than genuine mispricing of Democratic chances in this historically Republican seat.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade