Will Mike Bouchard be the Republican Nominee for MI-10?
Prediction markets currently give a 61% probability that Will Mike Bouchard be the Republican Nominee for MI-10?. This contract trades at 61¢ on Polymarket, closing August 4, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility despite a substantial $2.97M open interest, with zero 24-hour volume and a punishing 16¢ spread indicating thin order books.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility despite a substantial $2.97M open interest, with zero 24-hour volume and a punishing 16¢ spread indicating thin order books. The 59¢ price has declined 8 points over seven days while realized volatility sits at an extraordinary 637%, suggesting either sparse trading or sharp repricing events around sparse information arrivals (6.0/hour). With only 109 days to the August 4, 2026 primary and a Cliff Risk Index of 1, this market faces imminent resolution risk, making the asymmetric yields (232.7% for Yes vs. 481.8% for No) potentially misleading given the illiquidity and high probability of sharp moves as the nomination contest crystallizes.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MI-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
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sf trade 0x562d7f8059b364d2178fb92ec2af51e6f4e6148ec1655c52fcf023c8b9f2b896 yes 100