Will the Republican Party win the NC-07 House seat?

The market is pricing Republicans as heavy favorites at 81% to retain NC-07, but the extreme 775.5% implied yield on "No" suggests severe illiquidity with only $0 in 24-hour volume and just $21,961 open interest. The unusually high risk-adjusted yield of 388% and cliff risk index of 4 indicate this is a thin, potentially mispriced market where the No side offers outsized returns if Democrats manage an upset, though the lack of recent trading activity (flat movement from 80¢ to 81¢ over seven days) makes it difficult to assess whether this represents genuine conviction or simply low participation in a race still 201 days from resolution.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade