Will Iran strike Habshan Field or any Processing Plants of the Habshan Complex by April 30?

The 23¢ price reflects a low but non-negligible 23% probability of Iranian strike on Habshan by month-end, with the Yes position offering an extreme 8,891% implied yield—a massive risk premium suggesting either deep uncertainty or thin liquidity ($10.1k daily volume against $9.4M open interest). The 402% realized volatility and neutral regime score indicate this market has experienced sharp swings despite minimal recent price movement (22¢ to 23¢ over 7 days), and with only 14 days to expiry and a 3¢ spread, any geopolitical escalation could trigger rapid repricing.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.

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