Will the Democratic Party win the OR-05 House seat?

The Democratic contract at 81¢ reflects strong confidence in holding OR-05, but the market shows extreme asymmetry with a 774% implied yield for "No" versus 42.6% for "Yes"—suggesting the no-side is severely underpriced relative to risk. With only $100 in 24-hour volume against $8.1M open interest and a realized volatility of 1489%, this is a highly illiquid market prone to sharp moves, evidenced by the 6-cent rally over seven days and a 18.54 volatility ratio indicating significant mispricing potential. The neutral regime and 2.3 information arrivals per hour suggest the market may be vulnerable to political developments over the next 201 days, making the steep no-side yield potentially attractive for contrarian bettors despite the Democratic lean.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade