Will Dylan Cease win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award?
Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Will Dylan Cease win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Polymarket, closing November 12, 2026. Dylan Cease's odds have collapsed from 10¢ to 3¢ over seven days, reflecting either deteriorating health outlook or significant roster/competitive shifts, though the extreme 5628% implied yield on the yes side suggests the market may be overpricing tail risk given his current age and talent level.
Analysis
Dylan Cease's odds have collapsed from 10¢ to 3¢ over seven days, reflecting either deteriorating health outlook or significant roster/competitive shifts, though the extreme 5628% implied yield on the yes side suggests the market may be overpricing tail risk given his current age and talent level. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $1.95M open interest and a 14.63 volatility ratio indicates this is a thin, speculative position with potential mispricing rather than genuine liquidity. With 210 days to expiry and a 32 Cliff Risk Index, the market structure suggests high sensitivity to injury news or mid-season performance data that could trigger sharp repricing.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Cy Young Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
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Trade
sf trade 0x581ff17b196a1ce81f9d6f30b2cbe712c72a14b2937019f99a1d8a8e61882ab4 yes 100