Will the Republican Party win the NC-01 House seat?

The Republican probability has collapsed 46 percentage points over seven days (from 54¢ to 28¢), now pricing Republicans at just 34¢ despite 199 days until resolution, suggesting a significant adverse information arrival (2.1/hour). The extreme realized volatility of 1826% and 9.55 vol ratio indicate this market has experienced severe price swings, though current zero 24-hour volume and a wide 35¢ spread raise liquidity concerns that may not reflect true consensus pricing. The asymmetric implied yields (473% for Yes vs. 71.5% for No) and elevated cliff risk suggest market participants are pricing in substantial tail risk, possibly reflecting recent polling shifts or candidate developments in this traditionally competitive North Carolina district.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade