Will the Democratic Party win the AR-04 House seat?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $19k open interest, suggesting the 7¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus but rather stale positioning. The 2425% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high and likely unachievable given AR-04's strong Republican lean, indicating the market is pricing in a highly unlikely Democratic upset with minimal real trading activity to validate that probability. With 200 days to expiration and a neutral regime score, this appears to be a dead market where the low price reflects both structural Republican advantage in the district and lack of active price discovery rather than informed betting.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade