Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 38¢ spread despite modest $3.9K open interest, suggesting the 25¢ price may not reflect genuine consensus. The 185% implied yield on the "Yes" side is extraordinarily high and likely reflects the combination of low probability (25%), long time horizon (624 days), and severe liquidity constraints rather than a true opportunity. The 1470% realized volatility and 11x vol ratio indicate this is a highly speculative, thinly-traded position where any small order could move prices dramatically, making the current quote potentially unreliable for serious analysis.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

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