Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 6.75% (HIGH) by December 31, 2026?

This market is essentially illiquid and unreliable for trading, with zero 24-hour volume, only $8.23 in open interest, and an extreme 85¢ spread that dwarfs the actual position size. The 49¢ price implies a near coin-flip probability for mortgage rates hitting 6.75% within 259 days, but the extraordinarily high realized volatility of 693% and vol ratio of 5.47 suggest either historical price swings or very thin order books creating artificial price spikes rather than genuine conviction. With an information arrival rate of 4.5 events per hour and the market stuck at 49¢ for seven days despite this activity, the lack of volume indicates traders are avoiding this contract entirely, making the implied yield figures (147%) potentially misleading given the illiquidity risk.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, for any week ending on or before December 31, 2026, the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (interest rate %) is equal to or above the listed rate, according to the Freddie Mac weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms. This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or greater than the listed price, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.

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