Will the Republican Party win the IN-02 House seat?

This market shows extreme illiquidity despite a substantial $12.9K open interest, with zero 24-hour volume indicating virtually no recent trading activity at the 91¢ price point. The massive 1,845% implied yield on the "No" side reflects the severe mispricing typical of illiquid prediction markets—the Republican favorite is priced so heavily that betting against them offers absurd compensation for tail risk. With 200 days to expiry and a neutral regime, the 91% probability likely reflects Indiana's 2nd district lean Republican fundamentals, but the 10/10 cliff risk index and 2¢ spread suggest this market could experience sharp repricing if new information emerges or liquidity improves.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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