Will Iran strike Jordan by April 30, 2026?

This market is pricing an extremely low probability (7%) for an Iranian strike on Jordan within 14 days, yet the implied yield on the "Yes" side reaches an extraordinary 35,254%—a massive risk-reward asymmetry suggesting either severe mispricing or that traders view tail-risk scenarios as undervalued. The realized volatility of 2,484% and cliff risk index of 13 indicate extreme price instability despite the stagnant 7-day price action, pointing to sharp intraday swings that could reflect breaking geopolitical news; notably, the 3¢ spread and $101k daily volume are relatively tight and modest for such a volatile contract approaching expiration. The 0.8 info arrivals per hour suggest active market monitoring of Middle East developments, making this a classic binary tail-risk bet where the asymmetric payoff structure may be attracting speculative capital despite the low base probability.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Indicators

Regime

Trade