Will Patrick Mahomes win the 2026 NFL MVP?
Prediction markets currently give a 46% probability that Will Patrick Mahomes win the 2026 NFL MVP?. This contract trades at 46¢ on Polymarket, closing February 15, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $18.064 in open interest, and the 69¢ spread indicates significant pricing uncertainty between bid-ask levels.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $18.064 in open interest, and the 69¢ spread indicates significant pricing uncertainty between bid-ask levels. The 224.1% implied yield on the Yes side is exceptionally high relative to the neutral regime, suggesting either underpricing of Mahomes' MVP chances or substantial risk premium demanded by liquidity providers. With 302 days to expiry and a low Cliff Risk Index of 2, this appears to be a mispriced niche market where the lack of trading activity has allowed the price to drift away from consensus valuations on major venues.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 NFL Most Valuable Player award for the 2026-27 NFL season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by NFL rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026-27 NFL season is cancelled, postponed after February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x5d41b5d07bc3096d92d35674e7bbc1af421243a69c8e313659e254e9962a59b8 yes 100