Will the Republican Party win the NY-02 House seat?

This NY-02 market shows extremely asymmetric risk, with the "No" side offering a 517.7% implied yield compared to just 63.9% for "Yes," suggesting the 74¢ price may overweight Republican chances despite the district's recent competitive history. The $0 24-hour volume combined with $17.98k open interest and a tight 2¢ spread indicates illiquid conditions where large trades could move the price significantly, and the elevated Cliff Risk Index of 3 warrants caution about potential sharp repricing as we approach the November 2026 election. With over 200 days to expiry, this market appears to be pricing in Republican strength but lacks the trading activity to validate whether this consensus reflects genuine conviction or simply thin liquidity.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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