Will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) hit $21,000 (LOW) in December?

The 66¢ price implies a 66% probability of NDX touching $21,000 by December 2026, yet the market shows zero 24-hour volume with a wide 26¢ spread and only $1.7M open interest, suggesting illiquidity and potential mispricing. The extreme realized volatility of 768% and vol ratio of 8.96 indicate this contract is pricing in massive NDX swings, while the asymmetric implied yields (72.9% Yes vs 274.7% No) reveal the No side is substantially undercompensated relative to tail risk. The recent 7-cent price decline from 73¢ to 66¢ over a week, combined with neutral regime conditions and 258 days to expiry, suggests either genuine uncertainty about NDX's downside or a liquidity-driven repricing that may not reflect fundamental probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered. Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered. All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/.

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