Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 30% probability that Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?. This contract trades at 30¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. The market is pricing a 31% probability of U.S.
Analysis
The market is pricing a 31% probability of U.S. invasion by end-2026, with robust liquidity ($644k daily volume) and a tight 1¢ spread, though the extreme 315% implied yield on "Yes" signals substantial tail risk premium rather than high conviction. Price has risen 19% over seven days (26¢ to 31¢) amid elevated realized volatility of 328%, suggesting recent geopolitical developments are driving uncertainty, though the neutral regime score and modest info arrival rate of 0.8/hour indicate no sustained directional pressure. The 258-day timeframe and low cliff risk index (2) suggest the market is pricing this as a gradual escalation scenario rather than an imminent binary event.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x5db999fad322cea2914535aae5517060c3f80ad6d8c0231cde2124a434d16846 yes 100