Will the Republican Party win the OK-04 House seat?

The market is pricing in an extremely high probability (92%) for Republican victory in OK-04, reflecting the district's strong Republican lean, though the zero 24-hour volume suggests minimal recent trading activity and potential liquidity concerns. The asymmetric implied yields are striking—the No side shows an extraordinary 2091.8% yield versus just 15.8% for Yes—indicating that while the market is confident in a Republican win, contrarian bettors betting against it could see outsized returns if an upset occurs. With 201 days until resolution and a tight 1¢ spread, this appears to be a stable market reflecting fundamentals, though the low open interest of $25,620 and zero volume warrant caution about execution if attempting larger positions.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade