Will the Democratic Party win the PA-17 House seat?

The Democratic contract has rallied 9 cents over seven days to 86¢, pricing in a strong 86% win probability for PA-17, though the extreme 1114.5% implied yield on the No side suggests severe illiquidity with only $7,674 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume. The 94% realized volatility and 5-cent spread indicate this thin market is prone to sharp moves despite the long 201-day timeframe, making the current price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade