Will the Republican Party win the MA-03 House seat?

This market reflects an extremely bearish outlook on Republican chances in Massachusetts's 3rd congressional district, with the Yes contract trading at just 8¢ and implying only an 8% probability of GOP victory. The extraordinarily high implied yield of 2099% on the Yes side signals severe illiquidity and pricing inefficiency—the $18,438 open interest combined with zero 24-hour volume suggests this contract is essentially frozen with minimal market activity to validate the extreme odds. With 200 days until resolution and a 12 cliff risk index, the market appears to be pricing in a near-certain Democratic hold in this blue-leaning district, though the lack of recent trading activity raises questions about whether this 8¢ price reflects genuine consensus or simply stale pricing from an inactive market.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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