Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?

This market has experienced dramatic repricing, collapsing from 39¢ to 21¢ over seven days, suggesting significant new information shifted expectations away from United Russia capturing 340-354 seats. The 741% implied yield on the Yes side combined with extremely high realized volatility (516%) and a 2.06 vol ratio indicates substantial uncertainty and potential mispricing, though the low 21¢ price and modest $162k daily volume raise liquidity concerns for position sizing. With 156 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, the market appears to be pricing in either a broader seat distribution for United Russia or structural changes to the electoral outcome, warranting close monitoring of Russian political developments through mid-2026.

Resolution rules

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.

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