Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?

The 6¢ price reflects an extremely low 6% implied probability for crude oil reaching $200 by end-June 2026, yet the Yes position offers an extraordinary 7,725.9% annualized yield—a classic risk-reward asymmetry suggesting either severe underpricing of tail risk or justified skepticism given crude's current trading levels are roughly one-third of that target. The market shows modest recent weakness (down from 7¢ to 6¢ over 7 days) with reasonable liquidity ($34.5M daily volume) and a notable cliff risk index of 16, indicating concentrated betting pressure that could create sharp repricing if geopolitical shocks emerge before the June 2026 expiry.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Crude Oil (CL) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.

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