Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 5?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 7¢ price implying only 7% odds for exactly 5 Republican retirements, yet the "Yes" side offers a staggering 3,566% annualized yield—a massive red flag suggesting either severe illiquidity or structural mispricing. The $0 in 24-hour volume combined with $12.6M open interest and a 3¢ spread indicates this is a dead market with minimal price discovery, making the yield calculation potentially misleading given the difficulty of actually executing trades. With 136 days to resolution and a realized volatility of 1,129%, the market has experienced wild swings (moving from 8¢ to 7¢ recently), but the near-zero liquidity means any actual trading could dramatically move the price in either direction.

Resolution rules

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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