Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?

This market is pricing in only a 4% chance that OpenAI's IPO valuation lands in the narrow $1T-$1.25T band, despite the massive 11,842% implied yield on "Yes" positions reflecting extreme mispricing or tail-risk hedging. The zero 24-hour volume and $23.4K open interest suggest severe illiquidity, making the 4¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate. With 74 days to expiry and a high cliff risk index of 24, this appears to be a speculative long-shot bet where the extreme yield compensates for both execution risk (whether an IPO occurs at all) and the precision required to hit that specific valuation band.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

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