OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: 1T–1.25T
Leader sits at 24% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 13%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
1T–1.25T
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
13¢
1T–1.25T
Spread
11pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
573 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: 1T–1.25T
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: 1T–1.25T
0x602a7a…de13
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: 1T–1.25T
0x3d876f…d8c3
Analysis
This market measures the likelihood that OpenAI will go public with a closing market capitalization between $1 trillion and $1.25 trillion. The current 25% probability reflects meaningful but uncertain odds, positioned between a "no IPO by end-2026" contract at 73% and higher valuation outcomes at 11%. The main drivers are OpenAI's reported willingness to pursue public markets against its history of delaying capital-raising decisions. Related SpaceX IPO contracts show active trading around similar timeframes and valuations, suggesting investor interest in high-cap tech exits. The critical catalyst is any official SEC filing or company announcement—currently there is no confirmed IPO timeline. Resolution depends on whether OpenAI initiates the process in 2026 and achieves this specific valuation band, making both timing and final share price determinative.
- ›OpenAI has not filed an S-1 with the SEC as of May 2026; any official filing would be a concrete forward-looking event
- ›The 73% probability on 'no IPO by December 31, 2026' indicates market consensus favors delay beyond this calendar year
- ›A $1T–$1.25T range sits between the 73¢ bid on 'no IPO' and 11¢ on '$1.5T+', suggesting this band is neither consensus base case nor tail scenario
- ›SpaceX IPO contracts show active comparison markets at 33¢ for $1.5T–$2.0T, providing relative valuation context for mega-cap tech IPOs
- ›OpenAI's recent capital rounds and stated governance preferences will influence both IPO timing and final valuation range
What moved the line
- Jun 41T–1.25T↓8pp24→16¢ · Polymarket
- May 301T–1.25T↓6pp27→21¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 51T–1.25T↑4pp16→20¢ · Polymarket
- May 311T–1.25T↑3pp21→24¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in ai tech
- How many SpaceX launches in May?: 14 or morelast 90% · 4d
- Largest Company end of May?: NVIDIAlast 97% · 5d
- What will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $240last 3% · 6d
- Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026last 90% · 7d
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above ___ end of April?: $200last 5% · 8d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (24% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In ai tech
Related reading
AI Model Race Intensifies as Anthropic Gains on OpenAI
The AI leadership race is heating up with Anthropic's Claude 5 release expectation jumping 16¢ to 38¢ for a June 30 launch, while OpenAI's GPT-5.6 probability dropped 8¢ to 79¢. Markets now favor Anthropic to have the best AI model by end of June at 84¢. The 'Best AI in Jun' contract trades at 63¢ for Anthropic vs 16¢ for Google.
OpenAI IPO Fading: 'No IPO by 2026' Surges to 66¢
OpenAI's IPO probability continues declining as markets price in long-term privacy, while Databricks emerges as the likely AI bellwether for a potential tech listing window reopening.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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