Will the Democratic Party win the SD-AL House seat?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $39k open interest, suggesting the 9¢ price may not reflect true consensus and could be vulnerable to sharp moves as the November 2026 election approaches. The 1839% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high—typical of deep out-of-the-money bets—while the 920% risk-adjusted yield and cliff risk index of 10 indicate significant tail risk and potential for dramatic repricing. With 201 days to expiry and South Dakota's AL district being heavily Republican-leaning, the low probability appears reasonable fundamentally, but the complete absence of recent trading activity warrants caution about using this price for serious position-taking.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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