What is the current probability for "Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 42¢ (42% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on December 31, 2026. 253 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 199.2% and 104.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 42% probability that Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December?. This contract trades at 42¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026.

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42¢

Bid/Ask 38/46¢·Spread 8¢·Vol $0·OI $9,177.515·Closes Dec 31, 2026·253d remaining

0x6331d6322a6398a5b42be7cd2ce72c87bbc69276eaea5866620828018165cee3

7-day price315 snapshots · 3 regime

68¢42¢ current

Apr 816¢Apr 21

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered. Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered. All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 199.2%

IY (No) 104.5%

Adj IY 100%

CRI 1

Overround 2.3%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	199.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	104.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	100%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	2.3%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

8¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 12:48:47 AM

Observability lowEvent type financial

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 12:38:18 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x6331d6322a6398a5b42be7cd2ce72c87bbc69276eaea5866620828018165cee3 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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