Will José Ramírez win the 2026 American League Hank Aaron Award?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1.67k open interest, creating a massive 11¢ bid-ask spread and an unusually high 2301.7% implied yield on the yes side that reflects the thin market rather than genuine probability assessment. At 7¢, Ramírez's odds appear depressed relative to his status as a perennial MVP candidate and consistent AL performer, though the neutral regime score and moderate cliff risk suggest this could be a genuine mispricing or simply an illiquid niche market with limited trader interest. With 211 days to expiry, there's ample time for the market to deepen, but current conditions make this difficult to trade meaningfully.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Hank Aaron Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade