Will Yolanda Flowers win the 2026 Alabama Governor Democratic primary election?

This market displays extreme mispricing with a 36,934% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 3¢ price significantly undervalues Flowers' chances relative to the No side's modest 35.3% yield. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $18,057 open interest and a tight 1¢ spread indicates illiquidity despite the dramatic yield differential, making this potentially a stale or thinly-traded position rather than an actively discovered price. With only 32 days to expiry and a notable 1¢ price decline over seven days, the elevated Cliff Risk Index of 32 warrants caution around late-stage volatility near the May 19 resolution date.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Alabama, scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Alabama Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Alabama Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Indicators

Regime

Trade