Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?
Prediction markets currently give a 60% probability that Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?. This contract trades at 60¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. The market has experienced a notable 14% price decline over 7 days (70¢ to 60¢), suggesting weakening conviction in an SPX dip to $6,200 despite the 60% implied probability.
Analysis
The market has experienced a notable 14% price decline over 7 days (70¢ to 60¢), suggesting weakening conviction in an SPX dip to $6,200 despite the 60% implied probability. The extremely high realized volatility of 980% and vol ratio of 8.62 indicate substantial uncertainty, while the inverted yield structure (212% on "No" vs 94% on "Yes") reveals asymmetric risk-reward favoring the downside bet. With $7.9M open interest but only $169K daily volume and a 17¢ spread, liquidity is moderate relative to OI, creating potential execution challenges for larger positions over the 258-day horizon.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered. Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered. All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.
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sf trade 0x63e5bdd1d9079da369f41a2f5c3b7e6ce3dd7effcadcdd23387dd59447ce80fe yes 100