Will the Republican Party win the GA-13 House seat?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $20k in open interest, suggesting the 4¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus but rather stale positioning. The 4380.6% implied yield on the Yes side is a classic sign of a deeply out-of-the-money contract with minimal trading activity, while the 24 Cliff Risk Index indicates meaningful tail risk near the November 2026 expiration. GA-13 is a heavily Democratic district (Cook PVI of D+13), making the 4% Republican win probability appear reasonable fundamentally, but the zero spread and lack of price discovery warrant caution before treating this as a reliable signal.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the GA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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