Will the Democratic Party win the CA-02 House seat?

The market is pricing in an extremely high Democratic probability (92¢) for CA-02, but the zero 24-hour volume and extreme yield asymmetry (2099% on the No side versus 15.9% on Yes) suggest minimal liquidity and potential mispricing on the underdog position. With 200 days to expiration and a modest $14.3K open interest, this appears to be a low-conviction market where the No position offers outsized theoretical returns, though the tight 1¢ spread indicates some baseline market-making activity. The elevated Cliff Risk Index of 12 warrants caution, as late-breaking political developments in this California district could trigger sharp repricing closer to the November 2026 election.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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