Will the Democratic Party win the HI-02 House seat?

The Democratic contract is pricing Hawaii's 2nd congressional district as heavily favored at 93 cents, reflecting the district's strong Democratic lean, though the 13.7% annualized yield on the Yes side suggests modest expected returns for backing the consensus view. The No side shows an extreme 2425.6% implied yield, but this is a mirage created by the tiny 7-cent ask price—with only $88,875 in 24-hour volume against $19.2 million open interest, liquidity is thin enough that the asymmetric yields don't represent realistic opportunities. The tight 1-cent spread and stable price movement from 92¢ to 93¢ over seven days indicate the market has settled into a relatively stable equilibrium with 200 days to expiry, though the elevated Cliff Risk Index of 13 warrants monitoring for potential late-campaign volatility.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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