Will San Marino come in last place at Eurovision 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will San Marino come in last place at Eurovision 2026?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Polymarket, closing May 16, 2026. San Marino's 5¢ price reflects a 5% probability of last place, but the market shows extreme illiteracy with a 23,340% implied yield on "Yes" positions and realized volatility of 2,164%—suggesting either minimal trading activity or severe mispricing.
Analysis
San Marino's 5¢ price reflects a 5% probability of last place, but the market shows extreme illiteracy with a 23,340% implied yield on "Yes" positions and realized volatility of 2,164%—suggesting either minimal trading activity or severe mispricing. The $2,821 open interest against just $28.60 in 24-hour volume indicates dangerously low liquidity, and the 7¢ spread is substantial relative to the price, making this contract difficult to trade reliably with only 30 days to expiry. The high cliff risk index (19) combined with neutral regime conditions suggests this market may be driven more by technical factors or thin order books than fundamental Eurovision forecasting.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 places last in the final. If no last place country is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x6860e624f9620d6cfc65dbb7f6e19579cdbec847e1e82e8bb76341d0c3a349c5 yes 100