Will Boyko Borissov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

This market shows extreme illiquidity and pricing distortion, with zero 24-hour volume despite $15k open interest and a massive 5¢ bid-ask spread. The 4¢ price implies only a 4% win probability for Borissov, yet the implied yield on a "Yes" resolution reaches an extraordinary 3,859%—suggesting either severe mispricing or that traders view his candidacy as highly unlikely but are pricing in substantial tail risk. The 7-day price collapse from 11¢ to 4¢ combined with 1,825% realized volatility indicates recent negative information flow (0.7 info arrivals per hour), though with 227 days to expiry and a neutral regime, this could represent either capitulation selling or a genuine reassessment of his electoral prospects in Bulgaria's fragmented political landscape.

Resolution rules

Presidential elections in Bulgaria are expected to be held in the Fall of 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next presidential election in Bulgaria. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade