Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $9,300 (HIGH) in December?

The 6¢ price implies only a 6% probability of SPX reaching $9,300 by end-2026, yet the implied yield on a "Yes" position reaches an extraordinary 2217%, suggesting severe mispricing or extreme tail-risk premium for a ~258-day window. With only $67.73 in 24-hour volume against $12.3M open interest and a 3¢ spread, liquidity is dangerously thin relative to position size, creating potential slippage concerns. The realized volatility of 1019% and cliff risk index of 16 indicate this market is pricing in substantial tail uncertainty, though the neutral regime score and modest 7-day price movement (5¢ to 6¢) suggest the market hasn't recently repriced this tail event significantly.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered. Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered. All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.

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Regime

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