Will Carlos Prates be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will Carlos Prates be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and minimal open interest of $1,169.51, making the 3¢ price potentially unreliable for actual trading.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and minimal open interest of $1,169.51, making the 3¢ price potentially unreliable for actual trading. The 4574.8% implied yield on the Yes side is a classic indicator of mispricing in low-liquidity markets—such astronomical returns suggest the market is either severely undervaluing Prates' chances or the price reflects minimal real conviction. With 258 days until expiry and a moderate Cliff Risk Index of 32, there's meaningful time for Prates to climb the welterweight rankings, though the 4¢ spread indicates significant uncertainty about fair value.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
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sf trade 0x68d89a5088c2a794456ed0e3e1574c7a3f0ca09adfe58a3cee11b508d29c348b yes 100