Will Dusty Johnson win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?
Prediction markets currently give a 53% probability that Will Dusty Johnson win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?. This contract trades at 53¢ on Polymarket, closing June 2, 2026. Dusty Johnson's odds have collapsed 28% over the past week (from 46¢ to 36¢), suggesting significant negative information arrival despite the neutral regime classification and modest 0.6/h info rate.
Analysis
Dusty Johnson's odds have collapsed 28% over the past week (from 46¢ to 36¢), suggesting significant negative information arrival despite the neutral regime classification and modest 0.6/h info rate. The extreme implied yield of 1411% on the Yes side reflects the sharp repricing, though the thin $190.87 daily volume and tight 3¢ spread indicate relatively low liquidity for a market with $18.6k open interest closing in just 46 days. The 294% realized volatility and elevated cliff risk (2.0) suggest this market remains highly uncertain with potential for further dramatic moves as the primary approaches.
Also on kalshi at 51¢(Δ +2¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of South Dakota, scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 South Dakota Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the South Dakota Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Indicators
Regime
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sf trade 0x6912f57515190db649735f6d70f004291335136da50ea181632f6d5e6f89a0d4 yes 100