Will the Republican Party win the GA-03 House seat?

The market is pricing in an extremely lopsided 91% probability for Republican victory in GA-03, yet the No side offers an extraordinary 1,846% implied yield compared to just 18.1% for Yes, indicating severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns. With zero 24-hour volume despite $17,847 in open interest and 200 days to expiration, this appears to be a dead market where the extreme No-side yield reflects minimal actual trading rather than genuine conviction. The modest 1¢ spread and neutral regime suggest the 91¢ price may be stale, warranting caution before treating it as a reliable signal of Republican dominance in this district.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the GA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade