Will Paris FC be relegated from Ligue 1 after the 2025–26 season?

Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Will Paris FC be relegated from Ligue 1 after the 2025–26 season?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Polymarket, closing May 30, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $844,756 in open interest, suggesting the position is largely locked in with minimal recent trading activity.

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8¢
Bid/Ask 6/9¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $0·OI $844.756·Closes May 30, 2026·38d remaining
0x69bafa45a085aa1be26d6fe0e9e03eaccaa1066aef68b9c91242092c50f3ea97

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $844,756 in open interest, suggesting the position is largely locked in with minimal recent trading activity. The 9779.6% implied yield on the "Yes" side is a red flag indicating severe mispricing or structural issues—such an astronomical yield is unrealistic and likely reflects the 4¢ spread combined with thin liquidity rather than genuine expected returns. With only 43 days until expiration and a neutral regime score, the market appears stale; traders should verify if this reflects genuine market consensus or if the position is simply illiquid and awaiting resolution.

Cross-venue

Also on kalshi at 33¢-25¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.85IY 1795.4%Close-time delta 74h

Resolution rules

This is a polymarket to predict which clubs are relegated from Ligue 1 after the 2025–26 season. If the listed club is officially relegated by Ligue 1 following the 2025–26 season, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If the 2025–26 Ligue 1 season is canceled or not completed by October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official information from Ligue 1. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 10990.5%
IY (No) 83.1%
Adj IY 5495%
CRI 12
Overround 0.1%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)10990.5%
IY (No)83.1%
Adj IY5495%
CRI12
Overround0.1%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.432
Spread
4¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 7:37:24 PM
Observability mediumEvent type unknown
Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 7:23:17 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x69bafa45a085aa1be26d6fe0e9e03eaccaa1066aef68b9c91242092c50f3ea97 yes 100

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