Will Paris FC be relegated from Ligue 1 after the 2025–26 season?
Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Will Paris FC be relegated from Ligue 1 after the 2025–26 season?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Polymarket, closing May 30, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $844,756 in open interest, suggesting the position is largely locked in with minimal recent trading activity.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $844,756 in open interest, suggesting the position is largely locked in with minimal recent trading activity. The 9779.6% implied yield on the "Yes" side is a red flag indicating severe mispricing or structural issues—such an astronomical yield is unrealistic and likely reflects the 4¢ spread combined with thin liquidity rather than genuine expected returns. With only 43 days until expiration and a neutral regime score, the market appears stale; traders should verify if this reflects genuine market consensus or if the position is simply illiquid and awaiting resolution.
Also on kalshi at 33¢(Δ -25¢)
Resolution rules
This is a polymarket to predict which clubs are relegated from Ligue 1 after the 2025–26 season. If the listed club is officially relegated by Ligue 1 following the 2025–26 season, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If the 2025–26 Ligue 1 season is canceled or not completed by October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official information from Ligue 1. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x69bafa45a085aa1be26d6fe0e9e03eaccaa1066aef68b9c91242092c50f3ea97 yes 100