Will Frank F. Blas Jr. win the 2026 Guam Governor Republican primary election?

This market displays extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $13k open interest, suggesting the position is largely trapped. The 1568% implied yield on the Yes side is a classic sign of a deeply mispriced long-shot bet, likely reflecting minimal trading activity rather than genuine edge. With 106 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, the market appears dormant—the modest 7-day price movement (18¢ to 19¢) and high realized volatility (966%) suggest sporadic, low-conviction trades rather than informed price discovery on this niche territorial election.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Guam, scheduled to take place on August 1, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Guam Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Guam Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Indicators

Regime

Trade