Will the Republican Party win the CA-02 House seat?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 9-cent Republican price generating a stratospheric 1,845.7% implied yield on the Yes side, while the No side offers only 18.1%—a massive asymmetry that suggests severe illiquidity rather than genuine probability assessment. With zero 24-hour volume despite $15,417 in open interest and a tight 1-cent spread, the market appears frozen with no recent price discovery, making the 9% Republican probability potentially stale given CA-02's historical Democratic lean. The 10/10 cliff risk index combined with 200 days to expiry and neutral regime conditions indicates this thin market could experience sharp repricing once trading resumes, particularly if new polling or candidate announcements emerge.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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