Will the Democratic Party win the MA-05 House seat?

The Democratic contract is pricing MA-05 as heavily favored at 94¢, reflecting the district's strong Democratic lean, though the 2¢ spread and $23.9k open interest suggest moderate liquidity for a state-level House race. The extreme 2859% implied yield on the No side is a classic artifact of deep out-of-the-money pricing rather than genuine opportunity, while the 11.6% yield on Yes indicates modest expected returns for backing the consensus view. With 200 days to expiry and neutral regime conditions, this market appears efficiently priced with limited edge unless significant political shifts occur in the district.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

Trade