Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $13.6K open interest, suggesting the position is largely trapped. The 3¢ price has declined sharply from 5¢ over seven days, indicating weakening conviction in Flávio Bolsonaro's third-place finish prospects, though the astronomical 6914% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the severe mispricing typical of thin markets. With 171 days to expiry and a high cliff risk index of 32, this appears to be a speculative position with limited exit liquidity rather than an efficiently-priced prediction.

Resolution rules

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

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