Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be between 1250.00 and 1299.99 at the end of December 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 17% probability that Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be between 1250.00 and 1299.99 at the end of December 2026?. This contract trades at 17¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. The Yes position trades at an extreme 2217% implied yield despite only 14% probability, suggesting severe underpricing relative to the massive payout if the ARS stays within the 1250-1299.99 band—a narrow 50-peso range that currently sits well below Argentina's spot rate.
Analysis
The Yes position trades at an extreme 2217% implied yield despite only 14% probability, suggesting severe underpricing relative to the massive payout if the ARS stays within the 1250-1299.99 band—a narrow 50-peso range that currently sits well below Argentina's spot rate. The 18¢ spread and minimal $10 daily volume indicate dangerously low liquidity, making the 14¢ price potentially unreliable, while the realized volatility of 1041% reflects Argentina's historical currency instability, which makes the tight resolution range unlikely to hold over 258 days. The recent 75% price jump (8¢ to 14¢ in 7 days) combined with a high cliff risk index of 16 suggests recent information arrival has shifted sentiment sharply, though the neutral regime score indicates no clear directional bias in broader market conditions.
Resolution rules
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA). This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/). If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date. The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
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Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x6c4ea4422ce40d840d3da29b0b43fb39a55f0f595b83ea4ffaae8aa7b77ce9bd yes 100