Will the Republican Party win the OH-12 House seat?

The market is pricing in an extremely high Republican win probability at 91¢, but the zero 24-hour volume and modest $22,758 open interest suggest minimal liquidity and conviction behind this price. The asymmetric implied yields—18% for Yes versus 1,839% for No—indicate severe mispricing or illiquidity, with the No side offering an implausibly high return that reflects thin order books rather than genuine market belief. With over 200 days until the November 2026 election and a Cliff Risk Index of 10, this market lacks the depth and activity typical of well-calibrated prediction markets, making the 91¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade