Will the Democratic Party win the TN-03 House seat?

The Democratic contract is pricing at an extreme 8¢ with a staggering 2091.8% implied yield, reflecting TN-03's heavily Republican lean, though the zero 24-hour volume and $28k open interest suggest minimal liquidity to actually execute at these prices. The 1¢ spread and 201-day timeframe to expiry provide reasonable room for fundamental shifts, but the 12 Cliff Risk Index indicates potential for sharp repricing if polling or candidate dynamics change materially. This appears to be a classic low-liquidity deep-underdog market where the quoted yield may not reflect realistic execution opportunities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade