Will the Republican Party win the PA-17 House seat?

The Republican price has collapsed 36% over seven days to just 16¢, suggesting a significant shift in fundamentals favoring Democrats in this traditionally competitive Pennsylvania district. The extreme 954% implied yield on the Yes side combined with near-zero 24-hour volume ($0) and a wide 5¢ spread indicates severe illiquidity and potential mispricing, with the market struggling to find buyers at current levels despite 201 days until resolution. The 751% realized volatility and 2.37 vol ratio signal this is an unstable, information-sensitive market where the recent price movement may reflect genuine polling shifts or could represent thin-market distortions.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade