Will Dan McKee win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Democratic primary election?
Prediction markets currently give a 13% probability that Will Dan McKee win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Democratic primary election?. This contract trades at 13¢ on Polymarket, closing September 8, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $10.8M open interest, suggesting the position is largely illocked or held by long-term speculators.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $10.8M open interest, suggesting the position is largely illocked or held by long-term speculators. The 1155% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high and likely reflects the thin liquidity rather than genuine market conviction—the 18¢ price may not represent true consensus given the 1¢ spread on such low trading activity. With 144 days to expiry and a realized volatility of 824%, this market exhibits classic characteristics of a low-conviction, thinly-traded contract where the price discovery mechanism is severely compromised.
Also on kalshi at 18¢(Δ -5¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Rhode Island, scheduled to take place on September 8, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Rhode Island Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Rhode Island Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
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sf trade 0x6f3468d29a7c0682b729eb6674a8292db4d6da77af405e60024f40058e750dc2 yes 100